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June 2026
Windhoek Observer
Simonis StormidentifiedFirstRand Namibia as preferred banking stock on NSX
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“The report identifies FirstRand Namibia as the preferred banking stock on the Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX), citing its ability to consistently generate returns on equity above the current cost of equity across a range of economic scenarios.”
Simonis StormsaidNamibia's debt position remains manageable but borrowing pressure is increasing.
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“Chamwe Kaira Namibia's debt position remains manageable, but pressure on the country's finances is increasing as borrowing requirements continue to rise, according to financial services firm Simonis Storm.”
Simonis StormanalysedNamibia's inflation slowing to 2.4% year-on-year in February 2026
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“According to analysis from financial services firm Simonis Storm (SS), Namibia's headline inflation slowed to 2.4% year-on-year in February 2026, down from 2.9% in January and 3.6% a year earlier.”
Simonis Stormestimatedinflation could climb to 3.5%–4.5% by mid-2026 under certain oil price scenarios
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“Under a scenario where Brent averages US$95 to US$100 per barrel in the second quarter, Simonis Storm estimates Namibia's inflation rate could climb from the current 2.4% to between 3.5% and 4.5% by mid-2026.”
Simonis Stormnotescorporate repayments, restrained household borrowing, and liquidity effects from Eurobond redemption caused softening.
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“Simonis Storm notes that corporate repayments, restrained household borrowing and lingering liquidity effects from Namibia's Eurobond redemption all played a role.”
Simonis Stormnotedheadline sales momentum softened toward end of 2025
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“In its analysis of the latest vehicle sales figures, financial services firm, Simonis Storm (SS), noted that while headline sales momentum softened toward the end of 2025, the underlying fundamentals suggest the sector is transitioning from a sharp cyclical rebound into a more durable, value-driven phase of expansion.”
Simonis Stormstatednext phase of market will be less about rapid rebound and more about adaptation to new economics
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“In its number's analysis, SS stated that the next phase of the market will be less about rapid rebound and more about adaptation to new economics, where value, localisation, and cost efficiency determine the winners.”
Namibia's housing shortage has grown to approximately 300,000 units from about 80,000 in 2007, with rapid urbanisation and rising construction costs straining supply. Windhoek's population expands at 3.1% annually while informal settlements grow at 6.1%, with approximately 11,000 new informal dwellings added yearly against formal housing demand of 15,000 units annually.
Namibia's housing shortage has grown to approximately 300,000 units from about 80,000 in 2007, with rapid urbanisation and rising construction costs straining supply. Windhoek's population expands at 3.1% annually while informal settlements grow at 6.1%, with approximately 11,000 new informal dwellings added yearly against formal housing demand of 15,000 units annually.
The fifth tournament of the Arysteq Asset Management & Simonis Storm Schools Tournament Series drew 86 players (47 boys, 39 girls) from schools across the region, marking growth in Namibian youth table tennis and the debut of Hage Geingob School in the series. Notable performances included first-time gold medalists Sakaria Imbondi and Sabina Shanika, while boys' divisions produced five different champions for the first time.
The fifth Arysteq Asset Management & Simonis Storm Schools Tournament Series saw 86 players (47 boys and 39 girls) participate, with the tournament director noting increased competitiveness and emerging talent from schools across the region, including debut entries from Hage Geingob School and Origo Primary School from Rehoboth.
Around 11,000 new shacks are erected annually across Namibia, reflecting an expanding housing crisis driven by urban migration that outpaces formal housing delivery. The estimated housing deficit has grown to approximately 300,000 homes, nearly four times higher than the 80,000-unit backlog recorded in 2007.
Around 11,000 new shacks are erected across Namibia annually, reflecting an urban migration and housing deficit deepening faster than formal housing delivery can address. Economists estimate Namibia's housing deficit has ballooned to around 300,000 homes, nearly four times higher than the 80,000-unit backlog recorded in 2007.
Road users in Windhoek report spending hours on the road during peak periods, with journey times significantly longer than before. An Elisenheim resident cited a morning trip that now takes 45 minutes to over an hour, compared to 30 minutes previously, and identified a bottleneck near the B1 and Namibia Breweries turnoff where traffic lights have not been functioning.
Namibia's building sector improved in the first half of 2026, with June delivering broad-based gains in approval volumes and values despite elevated borrowing costs and household affordability constraints. In Windhoek, June approvals rose 24.7% year-on-year to 197 plans, with the value of approved plans surging 50.7% year-on-year to N$197.8 million.
Vehicle sales fell to 1,171 units in May from 1,320 in April, a 11.3% decline, though the May figure was 14.8% higher year-on-year and the strongest May print since 2016. Year-to-date sales for the first five months of 2026 reached 6,326 units, more than 22% ahead of the same period in 2025.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and resulting rise in global oil prices are expected to push inflation higher in Namibia and South Africa over coming months, though analysts say the impact will be temporary and unlikely to trigger a prolonged inflation cycle. Namibia's inflation rose from 2.1% in March to 3.1% in April as fuel prices increased, and is expected to climb further.
Simonis Storm analysis shows Namibia could unlock approximately N$14.5 billion in new manufacturing and value-addition activities, citing a trade deficit of N$4.4 billion and identifying 353 products across 23 sectors that the country could potentially manufacture using existing capabilities.
The Namibian government's debt to local banks climbed to N$52.4 billion in April after a N$20.4 billion increase over the past year, with borrowing from the banking sector surging 63.6% and raising concerns about future inflationary pressures, according to economist Almandro Jansen.
Namibia's banking sector continues to draw investors, though earnings quality differences among listed banks are now structural rather than cyclical, according to Simonis Storm's Banking Report 2026. FirstRand Namibia is identified as the preferred banking stock, while Standard Bank Namibia received an accumulate rating and Capricorn Group a reduce rating pending improvements in key indicators.
Headline inflation jumped to 3.1% in April from 2.1% in March, primarily driven by transport costs reflecting currency depreciation and higher global fuel prices. With the repo rate held at 6.50%, real interest rates have fallen, supporting credit demand but eroding household purchasing power.
Namibia's debt position remains manageable and the country has not lost access to financial markets, according to Simonis Storm, but pressure on government finances is increasing as borrowing requirements rise. Domestic debt has reached N$154.4 billion, interest now absorbs approximately 18% of revenue, and the country has become increasingly dependent on the domestic market to absorb government borrowing.
Namibia's inflation fell to a four-year low of 2.4% in February, but economists warn geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised global oil prices, potentially pushing inflation back toward 3.5–4.5% by mid-2026 since Namibia imports all its fuel and most of its food.
The Institute for Public Policy Research warns that Namibia faces governance risks as it prepares for oil production, citing lack of transparency in petroleum licensing, insufficient beneficial ownership disclosure, and weak local content oversight as key areas needing reform before the expected investment decisions from TotalEnergies and Mopane projects. Addressing these challenges through the Access to Information Act and digital transparency could help Namibia avoid the "resource curse" while ensuring oil revenues benefit communities rather than political elites.
Namibia's FY2026/27 budget allocates N$81.3 billion to operational spending but cuts capital expenditure to N$8.47 billion, prompting analysts to warn that low investment in infrastructure risks slower economic growth while debt servicing consumes 18% of projected revenue.
Namibia is offering higher interest rates on short-term treasury bills than South Africa, making it more attractive for investors, according to a Simonis Storm report. Last week the Bank of Namibia borrowed N$1.51 billion through treasury bills with oversubscription at strong levels, reflecting improving liquidity conditions.
Private sector credit extension grew 4.4% year-on-year in December 2025, down slightly from November but well above 2024 levels, driven by cautious borrowing rather than banking stress. Households account for 57% of total credit, while businesses are selectively investing in asset-backed financing and managing balance sheets more carefully.
Namibia's vehicle market posted 14,498 sales in 2025, its strongest year since 2015, driven by fleet investment and moderating credit conditions, but faces structural disruption from rising Chinese manufacturers reshaping regional supply chains and competitive dynamics. Cooling sales momentum at year-end should not signal reversal, as underlying fundamentals remain constructive with anticipated further monetary easing and corporate fleet demand expected to anchor volumes through 2026.
The US House of Representatives passed legislation extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) through 2028, preserving duty-free access to the US market for eligible sub-Saharan African countries including Namibia. The previous framework expired on 30 September 2025; if enacted, the extension would benefit Namibian exports of agricultural products, beef, and manufactured goods that face stricter competition without preferential access.
Namibia's headline inflation fell to 3.2% in December 2025 and averaged 3.5% for the year, remaining within the central bank's target range. According to financial services firm Simonis Storm, inflation is expected to tick slightly higher in 2026, averaging 3.6%–3.8%, driven mainly by structural and service-related factors rather than broad-based demand, with housing and utilities remaining the primary pressure points.
Financial advisory firm Simonis Storm predicts a 25 basis point rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, contingent on inflation remaining contained and financial stability being maintained. The forecast comes as inflation slowed to 3.4% year on year in November, within the Bank of Namibia's target range.
Private Sector Credit Extension eased to 4.5% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 4.7% in October, as both corporate and household borrowing softened. According to financial services firm Simonis Storm, credit growth remains well above 2023–2024 levels and is expected to stabilise around 4.5–5.0% into early 2026, with corporate credit continuing to drive growth through investment in productive assets.
Namibia's household credit growth slowed to 2.5% year-on-year in November 2025, with weak mortgage demand and continued borrowing caution driven by high living costs and modest wage growth. Households are shifting towards essential and asset-backed borrowing, particularly vehicle financing, while mortgage lending stagnated at 0% growth due to affordability constraints and limited affordable housing stock.